When you say your detachment, are you saying your cadre or just you heard from another cadet that heard from a cadet who was told by the PMS? If it is the latter go directly to your cadre and ask them. The thing with something like the you heard from another cadet, is the PMS might have said...we are waiting for how many cadets, they may or may not reduce the amount. That cadet heard may, and nothing after that.
They may not be reducing the number per se. It may be reducing the selection rate. TWO different things. 1 is saying the actual number, the other is saying the number is the same as last yr., but the pool size is larger, so statistically the rate will be lower.
Don't jump to conclusions yet.
Note they said they are reducing the number, but also note they said nothing about the pool size....see my previous post.
Let's say last year they sent 2200, and they had 2500 cadets up for selection. This yr they will only send 1800, but the pool size is 2100 cadets. Nothing statistically has really changed...88% to 86% is not an OMG the sky is falling. The numbers are less, but your chances are around the same.
Is it likely that it is dropping? Probably impo. Just my 0.02 cents and with $3 more you can get a small coffee from Starbucks, but SFT boards meet in Feb. What does that mean to you in your world as a cadet?
~ The cadre is starting to compile the files very soon for your packet. That means HQ has probably already sent down to the dets what the forecast is for the amount this yr.
~~ FY run Oct 1st to Sept 30th. That line number amount for SFT is there, and they know how many cadets they can take on.
You must graduate from SFT to become a PoC. They know this. They also have a 5 yr personnel plan in place for manpower within ADAF. They take the numbers from USAFA (predicted/guesstimate), add in ROTC and than more for OCS to meet their goal.
I really can't stress enough not to worry. I have been here long enough to see the numbers vary drastically yr to yr. Our DS is now an O3. His selection rate was 58%, the following yr it was 93%. The 58% had a larger pool size, and more that attended than the 93% selection rate.
Finally, the thing every class had in common regardless of the number selected was their gpa and PFA. The non techs selected were always in the 3.4 cgpa, and tech were 3.1. Their PFT was always high 90s...like 97+ to feel safe. I would worry if you are a non-tech carrying a 3.0 and a PFT of 90, and of course did poorly on the AFOQT.
If I were you, instead of wondering here and talking to posters that are not in the loop, just anecdotal, I would ask to sit down with someone in your unit and ask directly, how do you think I rack and stack for the SFT board?
~ To the best of my knowledge they no longer do what is called a "mini-board" IOWS, the cadre would rack and stack at the unit level. Those that they thought that would not make the cut were told by the end of fall semester that they should start thinking about a new path.
They will respect you even more for being proactive.
It is a little too late now to pull up your cgpa if that is an issue. However, if the PFT is, than buckle yourself down and work out everyday over your winter break so you can hit it out of the ballpark when you come back for the spring semester. Just like applying for the HSSP, every little point counts, and the PFT is some of those points. The board will draw a line regarding OML. Maybe it could be the difference of a 92 vs a 95.
OBTW are you tech/rated, tech/non-rated, non-tech/rated or non-tech/non-rated. That will also be a factor in selection regarding your chances.
Did you not pass on the 1st shot?I’m still waiting to retest for afoqt.