Ah yes, the never-ending "Chances?" threads.

HeWantsTheBFE,

You said you were not primary. Does that mean there is a primary? Or is it a competitive slate? Or don't you know? If it's not competitive then, of course, your chances are diminished. Bit that doesn't mean you're out of it. You have reasonable qualifications but then again you're not assured of an appointment either.

In any case it seems pointless to go on about it. It is what it is and only time will tell. Take deep breaths. Remain calm. Hard workouts and cold showers. Work on your studies and have some fun. It's not too much longer to wait for word from the only group who really knows your chances.
 
What's the difference between a competitive nomination and a non- nomination? And non primary means I want the number one pick. That's really all I know.
 
You know the drill : Nobody knows your chances because we don't know your competition.
That said last year my son was also not the principal nominee and there was a princpal on his slate so that meant he went to the national pool. His stats were similiar to yours except for his gpa was a bit lower and test scores a bit higher and his CFA was above average acrossed the board. He did not get in but was in, I believe, the last batch to receive the TWE.
There is a lot they are looking at and what gets one person in but not another is hard to tell. You appear to be competitive to me. There isn't anything else to do at this point but wait and make sure plan B is lined up.

Good Luck.
 
Thanks guys. I guess all there is left is to wait... not like I didn't know what before, but I had to ask. Thanks again!
 
HeWantsTheBFE - First of, congrats on your appointment to USMMA. That is a great school. That was my second son's first choice. However, he only made it to the waiting list. Fortunately, he received an appointment to USAFA that same year. He is now a proud member of USAFA Class of 2015. With your background, you have a great chance to receive an appt to USAFA. Most likely you will find out in March. However, you are already assured of USMMA which is a great plan B. Good luck on whatever your future holds. All i can say is whether it is USAFA or USMMA, you can't go wrong with any of 'em.
 
Your GPA/class rank situation is likely similar to my DS. The school uses the weighted GPA (extra quality points on Honors/AP/IB classes of varying amounts) to rank the students within the class. This prevents #1 from taking the weakest schedule to make first and then you have a bunch of kids who took the hardest classes behind him. The unweighted GPA is the one Service Academies use in scoring. Then you likely get additional "points" for the difficulty of the classes (Honors/IB/AP). So 65 kids ahead of you in the class took more classes of advanced difficulty and/or made higher grades than you. However, your unweighted GPA (on the traditional 4.0 scale) shows you did not slack off.
 
HeWantsTheBFE said:
What's the difference between a competitive nomination and a non- nomination? And non primary means I want the number one pick. That's really all I know.
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That maybe the USMMA system, but it is not the AFA. There is no primary. Principal, yes, primary no! I might be wrong, but for USMMA, can't you apply to MOCs even if you are not a resident in their district? Big difference between the AFA and USMMA there.

If your MOC uses competitive, than you will vie for it that appointment against the other candidates on their slate.

They cannot charge to the MOC until all of their noms have a WCS.

You have strong stats, your ACT is low, but they would take your SAT anyway.

However, you still need to compete against the others on your slate, and not one of us knows the other 9 on your slate.

You have stated you have a USMMA appointment, have you investigated your chances of going AF out of the USMMA?

Have you applied for an AFROTC scholarship?
~~~ I ask that because AFROTC scholarships are national, not regional. Unlike A/NROTC it is not tied to the school, just the cadet. If you were re-boarded after Dec. for the next board? Than the question goes to how the school profile ranks nationally for AF.
~ Don't win the MOC, you will go NWL. N = National. Basically AFROTC system, highest wins.

We all get you want an answer, you want to move on with your plans, but as harsh as this sounds....NOBODY here sits on the AFA board, and if anyone did they would not give you an answer since it would be classified.

If 6-9 months of waiting drives you nuts. FFW to being a 1st LT at UPT where your chances change weekly.

Not trying to be rude. I am just trying to illustrate in a yr from now your perspective of how difficult/great your HS is will be different. If you get the TWE and not the BFE, your perspective will change too.

It will be more about not getting an appointment, but commissioning, and how to get the AFSC you want the day your raise your right hand and affirm the oath.

I am not trying to be harsh, I am only saying, each SA is unique, and if plan B is USMMA hoping for an AF slot at graduation, take the time to investigate the chances of that occurring...remember right now we have to acknowledge sequestration sooner or later will occur, most likely while you are at an SA.
 
Pima said:
That maybe the USMMA system, but it is not the AFA. There is no primary. Principal, yes, primary no! I might be wrong, but for USMMA, can't you apply to MOCs even if you are not a resident in their district? Big difference between the AFA and USMMA there.
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I was using the term interchangably. I was not aware there was a difference. I would be grateful if someone explained this better to me.

Pima said:
If your MOC uses competitive, than you will vie for it that appointment against the other candidates on their slate.

They cannot charge to the MOC until all of their noms have a WCS.
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Please explain. What is a WCS?

Pima said:
You have strong stats, your ACT is low, but they would take your SAT anyway.

However, you still need to compete against the others on your slate, and not one of us knows the other 9 on your slate.

You have stated you have a USMMA appointment, have you investigated your chances of going AF out of the USMMA?

Have you applied for an AFROTC scholarship?
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Yes, I have applied for ROTC, waiting on a response.


Pima said:
We all get you want an answer, you want to move on with your plans, but as harsh as this sounds....NOBODY here sits on the AFA board, and if anyone did they would not give you an answer since it would be classified.

If 6-9 months of waiting drives you nuts. FFW to being a 1st LT at UPT where your chances change weekly.

It will be more about not getting an appointment, but commissioning, and how to get the AFSC you want the day your raise your right hand and affirm the oath.
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Yes, the waiting does drive me nuts. I've had my app in since EARLY this past summer. Also, I would hope nobody on the AFA board sees this site, It would be a MASSIVE breach of ethics. Also, with regards to the USMMA thing, the commissioning opportunities are great, but the course load is just astonishing. I'd much rather the AFA (8 MMA firsties separated b/c academics... scary)

I want AFA. I want it bad. Call me entitled... but I quote Queen when I say "I want it all, and I want it now."
 
im just curious but is there a stat anywhere that shows the acceptance rate of "candidates" according to afa portal that have nominations (excluding principal). yes the waiting is killing me too
 
afa said:
so according to 2015 records "qualified candidates" had roughly a 0.52% rate of receiving an appointment. so a coin toss pretty much? the waiting is driving me nuts gah :yllol:
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Sometimes I actually think that's how they do it. :biggrin:
 
HeWants,

Principal means that if you are 3Q'd, the AFA must appoint you, and the MOC will be charged that appointment if they accept it. The remaining 9 will either compete on another nom slate if they are on other slates, or if the AFA decides they will compete in the national pool.

Only about 30% of MOCs use principal, the majority use competitive. Competitive is when they say let the AFA use the WCS to determine who will be charged to them.

The WCS = Whole Candidate Score.

The reason you see Mass Mailing March, and what looks to be this yr Appointment April, is because of the system.

Look at it this way. The AFA is creating a giant 1300 piece jigsaw without ever knowing what it will look like.

The LOAs and Principals are the borders, the rest are the pieces inside.

EX:
Candidate Smith has 2 noms : Sen A, Cong 1
Candidate Jones has 2 noms: Sen B, Cong 1
Candidate Bob has 2 nom: Sen A, Cong 2
Candidate Jane has 2 nom: Sen B, Cong 2
Candidate Leo has 1 nom: Cong 1

Now if Smith is charged to Sen A, Bob needs to win Cong 2's slate over Jane before he is placed into the pool. Bob wins, Jane now has to beat Jones on Sen B slate before he has to compete on the Cong slate against Leo.

You see how one candidate being charged impacts someone else, and that someone else impacts another candidate. Imagine large states with 10+ Congressman, and add in Pres., it becomes very clear, very quickly that it takes time. Add in also the fact that candidates don't have to submit their packet until Jan. sometime, and if that 10th person on the slate does not get a WCS. until mid-Feb, it will also impact how fast those appointments will occur.

Like I said it is a jigsaw puzzle.

As far as it being unethical for any board member to be a poster here, I don't see how. They are not announcing who got appointed before the AFA announces it. It is also not their only job. They are part of the AFA cadre. They can advise posters from that perspective.

The assumption that as they sit on the board, reviewing hundreds of packets, their mind is saying "Oh that has to be HeWantsTheBFE" so I have to get him in because I like him, is not plausible. Their loyalty will be to the AFA, especially since next yr. and 3 yrs after that they will under their instruction,their loyalty is not going to be for you on this site.

It is a point system, with many parts...PAR, ECs, CFA, recs., etc.

Do you find it unethical that Flieger and ChristCorp as ALO's are on this forum? How about Marist or Clarkson on the ROTC forums? Do you not believe that they can separate their personal opinions from their professional perspective?

I am not trying to attack, I am just trying to gauge why you would see it as unethical.
 
It's an equality thing, and level of access. People aren't perfect, and if it got out someone on the board was posting on forums, people would harrass that person, it might influence judgement, etc, etc. Also, not every candidate is on this site (even though they can be) so there's the level of access issue.

And thanks for the WCS info. Very helpful.

To reiterate: It's unethical because of the chances of human error (EG: saying something they shouldn't) or saying something wrong that overtly influences people.
 
What is 10^-2 really?

afa said:
so according to 2015 records "qualified candidates" had roughly a 0.52% rate of receiving an appointment. so a coin toss pretty much? the waiting is driving me nuts gah
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I think you meant 52%... a 0.52% rate would mean there were 260,000 qualified candidates and 1350 appointments.
 
HeWantsTheBFE said:
It's an equality thing, and level of access. People aren't perfect, and if it got out someone on the board was posting on forums, people would harrass that person, it might influence judgement, etc, etc. Also, not every candidate is on this site (even though they can be) so there's the level of access issue.

And thanks for the WCS info. Very helpful.

To reiterate: It's unethical because of the chances of human error (EG: saying something they shouldn't) or saying something wrong that overtly influences people.
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There is nothing unethical about someone who works for admissions, or someone who this cycle happens to be on the selection board (That always changes) from seeing or posting on forums like this.

a) Selection board changes
b) Except for a few close friends, no one on this forum knows who I REALLY AM. Even if you figured out my real name, do you think I really know or care about you or any other applicant "Personally". I don't know you. Even your name on the forum is anonymous. I can't help or hurt you when it comes to my official duties and your application.
c) If there's going to be an ethics problem, it would probably be with me or others giving preference points to someone applying from our home town that's applying. (FWIW: If an ALO has a son/daughter, close friend, etc... who is in the application cycle, the ALO is pulled out of the cycle). Last year, I had to take on a number of other applicants because one of the ALO's son was applying. Just like 5-6 years ago when my son applied, I had to step out of the process.
d) You're talking about ALO's, admissions, and board members who have 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 years in the military. Most, depending on their job, held some pretty impressive security clearances. Basically; you're dealing with individuals with a very high level of ethics and integrity. Maybe a 17 or 18 year old might have a conflict of interest and ethic/integrity issues; but the people you are concerned with;..... DON'T.
 
On a side note, concerning ACCESS:

If you were to do a metric on the stats of "How many applicants receive an appointment vs how many applicants visit this or similar forums"; I think you would find that a LARGER percentage of those who visit this forum receive an appointment, than those applicants who don't visit this forum.

The reason is simple.
1. Those who go out of their way to find, read, join, etc... the forums, are MORE MOTIVATED.
2. Forums like this have first hand knowledge from ALO's, current cadets, graduates, parents/students currently applying, etc... Even though it's not face to face, applicants on this and similar forums provide a lot of one on one assistance.
3. Most ALO's don't have the time to give personal one on one attention. They have a lot of other applicants, plus their OWN LIFE. This forum, expanding on #2 above, provides more one on one that an ALO can't provide.

And when I say this or forums LIKE THIS, realize that there are a lot of forums with different objectives. There's many that are more social. They are there to make mommy and daddy; and even Johnny or Susie feel better about going off to the academy. They discuss more about living conditions, academics, finances, "LIFE". This forum does some of that, but mainly about how individuals who are applying to the academies, prep-schools, and ROTC can do that; maximize their chances; what to expect in the REAL MILITARY if they get the appointment/selection; etc... Not as much of the "Touchy-Feely" stuff.
 
Christcorp said:
b) Except for a few close friends, no one on this forum knows who I REALLY AM. Even if you figured out my real name, do you think I really know or care about you or any other applicant "Personally". I don't know you. Even your name on the forum is anonymous. I can't help or hurt you when it comes to my official duties and your application.
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Hi, Christcorp, I don't know who you are, I've been following this forum over a year and I have a great respect for all your post and sincerely appreciate the insight and patient of you! :thumb:
 
HeWants,

I am with CC on this one. Let's FF yourself 20 yrs from now. Are you saying as an officer that you could not separate your personal feelings from your professional decisions?

That is something you need to think about, because in essence, that is exactly what you said.
 
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