Let me tell a little story. A particular candidate had SATs of 600V/740M. Candidate stood in top 5 in class of over 600 with all AP core courses (+ everything else you'd expect from a highly qualified candidate) Would you assume that candidate was qualified? I would.
And I would be wrong. This candidate was rejected and was specifically told by USNA it was due to VERBAL SAT. Go figure. The story had a happy ending in the the candidate was offered Foundation, completed it and went on to make Supe's list at USNA.
A few years ago, I had someone with <1100 total SATs receive a direct appointment (no NAPS/Foundation).
This is why we don't like to make predications.
I would also say that some really, really well qualified candidates don't win their slates in highly competitive areas. Sometimes they do well in the national pool; sometimes not. Bottom line is that we can make educated guesses based on experience, but they're only that. I've learned to hedge my bets in counseling candidates because I've seen some really strange things happen over the years.