I understand, it's completely dependent on whether I pull through and get cadet wing leader style grades and show leadership ability. I did mean AFROTC. but what do you think is the difference between a 3.5 gpa cadet wing leader and a 3.5 gpa where you are good, but not cadet wing leader good in comparison to the other cadets?
A couple pieces of advice.
Don't get hung up on the idea of being a Wing Commander. Work on the things you have control over, GPA, EC's, PT (Or whatever the AF calls it) and ROTC. Do well and things will fall in line.
For now, concentrate on what you need to do to be accepted to SFT when your sophomore year rolls around, that will be your main goal.
As far as your question goes, I can only give you the example of my 2 sons. While they are both AROTC there are some similarities. Both my sons attended a smaller public university, the Battalion is small compared to larger schools. Both have enjoyed the smaller Battalion, they had better opportunities for leadership positions, were able to be very active in ROTC EC's, and had a more personal working relationship with the Cadre. This is not saying that a large Battalion would have been worse, it just worked well for both of them.
Both sons selected the school based on the school, not the ROTC program. Both have done well at the school because it was a great fit and they really enjoyed being there. Their success in ROTC came as a result of being at a school that was a good fit.
As far as being a 3.5 at either a small or large school, your biggest competition will be those 4.0 cadets. Grades will not always determine who is Wing Commander, or in my son's case Battalion Commander. My older son finished ROTC ranked #1 in the Battalion, even so he never held the position of CO or Battalion Commander, the PMS at the time gave those positions to cadets he felt needed more experience in leadership positions. My younger son's PMS does it the opposite, he gives the positions based on the OML and overall performance.
At Larger schools/Battalions, cadets may be a CO or Battalion Commander for as little as two weeks or a month so they can give a chance for leadership to more cadets. At my son's school with the smaller Battalion he was CO for the entire Semester.
There are benefits to both small and large schools, again select the school based on the right fit for you, the rest will follow suit.
Now if you were to ask either of my son's, they would tell you that the Big Fish in the little pond was the way to go, they would also tell you that is still hard to be the Big Fish no matter what size the program, but that's just their opinion.