I think you are confusing things regarding the AFA. The incoming class of 15 (hs class of 11) were informed that the apptmt size would be about 300 less. The AFA class of 11 is fine.
That is the thing, nobody absolutely nobody here can tell you what any branch will look like regarding manpower needs 2,3,or even 4 yrs from now. The military's needs can change drastically based on the economy (i.e. 2011) or something like 9/11. You just don't know.
I would say this that from a spouse who watched the RIF in 92/93, the SERB in 94 and the low O4 promotion rates in 95, the approach is usually done in a targeted way and in increments. The writing was on the wall in 89 they were overmanned because they were not washing back students at UPT, but washing out, and G forbid you needed a waiver...it was unheard of. Gulf I came about in 90, and staved off for a few yrs until like now we were leaving the area and the economy was in the tanks.
This is what you are seeing now. Also, on the ROTC forums, you can see the Army is starting to have issues because the boards are slowing down, and it is no longer that just throw your cover in the ring.
You also see it on the USNA threads where they say now are the days of 1 strike and you are out.
Our military has to maintain a budget, and Gates has been told to cut. He has a choice on how to target the cuts. From a fiscal standpoint it would make sense to slow the incoming pipeline down, with the hopes that the economy will improve and members will start to dive again.
The military has an inverse relationship with the economy...when it is bad retention rate is high, when it is good retention rate is low.