Maybe other NROTC parents can weigh in on this but what Pima is describing here doesn't line up with my understanding of the process of NROTC scholarship selection. We currently have 3 midshipmen, 1/C, 2/C, & 4/C. My understanding is that the two candidates Pima describes above do compete against each other directly if they are applying at the same time and with the same Tier of major. School choice doesn't come into play in receiving an NROTC scholarship. School choice matters where you are placed with your already received scholarship, which is a second step in the process. Both steps occur before the candidate is notified. I doubt that the board that selects scholarship recipients even attempts to weigh in on school placement. My understanding is that after a scholarship is awarded, they are placed into their first open unit on their list with the caveat that the placement office has a ratio of private/public scholarships to distribute. Applying early tends to increase odds of receiving a private school placement. Late in the process they may have only public school slots left to give out. Additionally, applying early increases chances to have the specific school still have open spots in their unit. School choice is critical for the student (and parents!) in the NROTC process, but not specifically in the initial competition for a scholarship.
I do agree that you can't compare straight stats between students unless you take into account which Tier they applied to and when they submitted. For instance, say a student submits their application in June with a Tier 1 major and receives a scholarship on the first board with a 3.2 GPA, 1170 SAT (M&V), varsity athlete, and normal EC's blah, blah, blah. A second student with 1470 SAT, 4.5 GPA, varsity captain, and same ECs applies in November as a Tier 3 major but doesn't get picked up for a scholarship. Given the Navy's preference for awarding scholarship that isn't an unlikely outcome. The second student will have had false hopes if only the normal stats were considered for his "chances" in comparing himself to the first scholarship recipient from the same year or the past 2 or 3 years. It doesn’t matter if they applied to the same schools or different schools.
However, school choice is a huge consideration for that ficticious first scholarship recipient. If he put as his first choice GT, UVA, UCB or some other very selective public school, he likely won't get in. However, he applied early so all of the Units were still open and he was put into his first choice. No one at the placement office considers whether a student has a shot at getting into the colleges on their list. It's not their job, that's the responsibility of the student. When the student doesn't get in to that selective public school, they need to put in for a transfer to another school. They now have less flexibility because they have currently an NROTC scholarship to a public school, which means they can transfer into another public school with an open unit. If they got into their second choice school and the Unit still has openings but it’s a private school, they will likely not be able to transfer in because they now have reserved one of the public school spots. Had the same student put MIT as their first choice and not gotten in, they would be able to transfer to their second choice private with an opening because they already have a private as their placement school.
I'm not at all suggesting that everyone should put a selective private school as their first school choice. Rather, if you apply early (which means you are in waiting mode already in September) and put a public as your first choice, make sure you look at as many public NROTC schools as you can. Call their Units and ask when they usually fill up. Make sure to apply to public NROTC schools that fill up late or rarely at all. Dream schools are great but every school has good and bad. Find the good in the alternate schools. The Navy requires adaptability and a good attitude. (Well, it at least sure helps) I think any adaptable student who wants to be a Naval Officer can learn to do just fine and thrive at any 4 year college even if they never heard of it prior to being placed in their Unit. If options are expanded then the ability to use the NROTC scholarship for a college degree and commissioning becomes much less complicated.
Over the past four years that we have been immersed in the NROTC world, we haven't noticed the huge decrease in scholarships that may be happening in other programs. The new NROTC class for our 4/C is consistent in numbers of scholarship mids as in the past four years or so. (We’ve only been in touch with about 10 units so others may have noticed a difference.) The new class for our 2/C mid's unit is an increase over his class which was an increase over the classes in front of his. Where we have seen a big drop off has been in the number of side load scholarships awarded during that same time frame.
The other big difference we've seen is in the ability to transfer schools during the scholarship process. When our 1/C mid transferred scholarship schools, it wasn't a big deal to transfer the scholarship between public and private. For both our 1/C and 2/C, transfers were also able to be done throughout the senior year in high school to any open unit even after receiving the scholarship. Also, during those years you could use your scholarship at any of the schools in the NROTC Unit. That changed at some point last year. I'm not sure when the change took place but it changed before the schools we were in contact with knew about it (they were still advising to apply to all schools in their Unit). It also took a few months to reflect on the website, well after our 4/C received a scholarship. We fortunately learned that before spending a few hundered dollars on application fees on other schools in the units. Last year there was also resistance to transferring any scholarships, even if the schools had openings, until sometime in the Spring so the placement office could do it all at once, I presume. There are likely new changes this year. Keep in mind that your recruiters and your Units may not know all of the changes. Be in touch with everyone.