That's not a bad guess. If you guess that only 10% of the offers of appointment are reported here, and the appointment thread has only two (2) offers reported this month (when there were 19 for the month of March last year), that could mean (in pure guessing terms) that there are 17 x 10 or 170 more offers to go, this month.
If you extend the wild guessing to the total number reported in the appointment thread right now (103), that could mean that 1,030 offers have gone out already. This leaves about 345 more offers, still to be determined.
You know, if we're guessing.
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I think 345 remaining is a very good number ….
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Well. Last Friday when my
Crystal Orb spoke to me after morning Coffee … it revealed to me that 61% of offers went out. Using my own intuition, I would say we are past the peak of a Poisson Distribution, and
23% remaining under the Curve sounds about right.
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I like that.. Poisson Distribution.
I'm not sure if SA admission notifications meet a couple of the assumptions required of a Poisson Distribution:
1) The occurrence of an event will not predict the probability that a subsequent event will occur. All events are independent of each other. This assumption may be true, but could it not be true of we say 1 appointment offer is 1 less appointment to go out for another applicant?
2) The rate of occurrence of an event is constant. My best guess (I'm a novice to SA admissions process) is it's not constant in that some weeks are more. Some weeks none. NAPS and foundation acceptances are due, so a bolus of appointment offers will go out - presumably.
My favorite use of the Poisson distribution was the study done by a famous mathematician who was directed to look into the number of Soldiers killed each year from a horse kick in the Prussian Cavalry. The commander of the Prussian Cavalry Corps that had the most horse kick deaths probably got fired because the data was compared between each Prussian Cavalry Corps.