I am not saying the chances to convert won't exist later on in their career, I am just saying that don't enter saying I am going AFROTC to become a fighter pilot.
Your goal should be to wear the blues as an officer.
Old joke:
You know what they call a 1st Lt. pilot? LT!
You are 1st an officer.
There are so many hoops that you must jump through before you become a pilot/WSO/ABM, etc. Statistically it makes the % of entering ROTC and commissioning look like it is 100%. @30% bust IFS. 30% of the remaining 70% bust UPT. 5-10 of the remainder will get fighters. Basically for our DS's class that had 13 UPT slots, If you do the math, 1 might get a fighter. His class started with 100 cadets in 08.
Tgun,
I thought you were going to go off in a different direction regarding it might not be your last. To be promoted in the AF you will fly a desk.
Your education does not end after college. You will need PME and preferably in residence.
Also as far as you only have to do 2 yrs., there is a flaw in your scenario. To attend UPT from the AD world, you would have to meet a board. To meet the board, your CC and Wing King would have to support you for that board.
Here's the thing, many Navs, WSOs, ABMS will also apply and if there are any planes at the base you are stationed at, than it will be much more likely that they will not support you, but them instead for a couple of reasons.
I will use my friend's DS as an example. He is going OCS next summer after he graduates, he already has a CSO slot. He wants to be a pilot.
He will be 23 when he graduates, (CE major). By the time he reports to UNT after OCS, he will be nearing 24. UNT is 49 weeks, so he will be 25 when he graduates. Add in SERE and Water Survival + at least 6 months for FTU, if all of the class dates align, he will be 26 when he reports to his 1st Op tour. It takes 45-90 days to become MQ. at least a yr to make IWSO/INAV. That puts him at 27. The board process takes about 6 months from start to finish...pushing up the paperwork, meeting the board, board results. Now he is 27 1/2. Gets a RNLTD 6 mos. later. He is now 28.
The Wing King is going to look at that because as you stated he is getting very close to the edge, especially if the board only meets 1x a yr. It would mean he only has 2 tries.
Now that same WK looks at the 25 yo, and says not only does he have 3 more yrs., but also he has no flight experience. I can only give 1 rec that says my #1 choice, send to UPT now. Who does he select?
~~~I am assuming there is no critical manning issue at this time.
Bullet was a WSO and every yr. there was always someone picked up for UPT, but the truth is that 1 or 2 people picked were hitting the age ceiling. I don't recall a WSO not getting selected and a non-rated getting it.
I agree with you totally that it happens. Col. Mike Goode is a great example. I am just saying don't assume it will be within 2 yrs. Mike was an EE, and he was a Capt. when selected for UNT. He was at the age ceiling. He went onto having an amazing career. Got a F111, went to TPS, picked up by NASA, and was an MS on the Shuttle to repair the Hubble.
The final thing also to remember is how the rated board works. You place your 3 choices in rank order, but it doesn't mean you will get your 1st choice...i.e. look at my friend's DS and Mike Goode, both did not score high enough on the OML to get their 1st choice of pilot.
Again, using our DS's class.
They had 100% selection rate of their application pool*.
13 commissioned rated, 14 were selected.
12 orig. got UPT
1 got CSO
1 got RPA
~1 lost her slot because of sitting height...too short
~1 kept her slot, but has already been tracked heavies because she can't be in an ejection seat, due to her sitting height
~CSO got that slot because he messed with his eyes(PRK) and was DQ'd for pilot...he would have made it without the surgery, believed he would have a better shot with the surgery
~ RPA selectee found out 3 weeks prior to commissioning he was being picked up for UPT.
The point is even at the very end things can and will change.
* Caveat, for rated board you must take the TBAS, and at his school the CoC determined if they would allow the cadet to take the TBAS. Basically, if they felt that their PCSM was not going to be competitive, they didn't send the cadet for the test. They saw it as a waste of AF dollars. Rule of thumb DS was told when he was a SR in HS and met the cadre, if you have a 3.2 cgpa, 95 PFT, you have a 95% chance of going rated.
It remained true yrs later when he was a jr up for AFSC.
Back on track. Just remember, especially for AROTC where it is not 100% guaranteed like AF/NROTC of AD life, always have a plan B, C, and D in place at all times.
That is what AD life will be like for as long as you are in it. At the end of your 1st tour you will submit your dream sheet for your next assignment. It is basically your plan A, B, C and D. You will repeat this as long as you are in the military.