There are candidates that do get an LOA, but not to their top choice. Some have taken the additional step to contact the MoC staff and say, I have an LOA to XYZ SA, but I really want ABC, is there a possibility to place me on both of these slates.
~ Some will because an LOA is not necessarily charged to their slate. IOWs, let's say MoC Smith uses the principal with alternate method. They list candidate Jones (non-LOA) as principal, and the LOA candidate on the same slate. Both will get an appointment because an LOA candidate only needs the nom. Thus, they did not take anything away from that principal. Now the same MoC can say the LOA records are strong for that other SA, but not willing to give them principal hoping that the other SA will eventually give them an LOA, thus again, that MoC would have at least 2 on each slate with appointments for a total of 4 before they even hit the NWL compared to only 2 if they didn't give the LOA a nom.
I have also seen LOA candidates from their number 2 or 3 choice call the RD admissions counselor/officer and say to them, I have in hand key words...in hand, is there a possibility before I submit my MoC nom SA order preference I will get an LOA because my MoCs talk/spread the wealth.
In the yrs I have been here I have also seen LOAs drop after the noms. where the candidate found themselves with an LOA to one SA, but a nom to another. Sometimes they have been able to contact that MoC and ask them to switch their nom to that SA. Not something I would ever advise, bc impo chances of that occurring are around the same ballpark as getting an LOA (rare), but it does happen.
~ Happened with my friend's DS. He had an LOA to USNA, no nom., but principal to USAFA with no LOA in a state where you got only 1 nom. He got on the phone and luck was with him. A candidate that got principal to USNA with no LOA, wanted USAFA as their number 1. The MoC did some magic and 7 months later they were both at their dream SAs.
It is really important to understand not only how rare LOAs are, and yes, USAFA is the skimpiest when it comes to giving them out, but it is just as important to understand how MoCs are charged and why LOA candidates are for lack of better term a freebie on their slate.
I understand that a candidate may not know for certainty which SA they want to attend, but as I always say this is not just a 4 yr commitment for collegiate education in a degree program you select and the military lifestyle, but a 9 yr commitment because you will owe 5 yrs AD where they decide your career field and where you will be assigned to live those yrs.