I was just presenting the OP with the information I had researched regarding a medical path in the military. Whether from the internet or an AMEDD recruiter (the one out of Milwaukee, WI specifically), the information I presented was absolutely valid to the data available, and my points of interest in pay and the service obligation in no way states that he should JUST do it to get his education paid for, but that there are advantages to choosing the military over not. Your data is valid for a limited time view. Look at the whole picture. The data is available online for pay during service for a physician. My point is that there is not a financial advantage to accepting ROTC and HPSP when comparing the entire payback period to a civilian physician.
Also, why wonder if OP doesn't get into med school? If he's planning his future out in high school, I'm sure there's a commitment there to work his butt off to get into a med school or USUHS. Because a large percent of students change their goals, especially premeds. A large percent of medical school applicants are not accepted - 40%?. It's a crap shoot - even good applicants don't get accepted. Go look at the WAMC posts on med school websites like Student Doctor Network. Lastly, I was technically correct in a sense with the pay structure. Good work! Correct for residency pay - it might even be higher if you didn't include incentive pay for PGY2+. The student doesn't have any education-based debt to deal with, and is getting paid at the same time. Compare that to civilians with six figure debt 10 years after their own education is over. Sure, some civilian doctors will generally have a higher salary when practicing, but they'll have to deal with that debt. Compare the civilian physician pay 7 years out from residency compared to that of an AD physician. If a civilian physician (with the exception of low paying specialties like Pathology, Peds, FM, ..) lived on the pay scale of an AD Physician they could pay down the debt earlier than the 10 year mark - some choose not to.
OP is also considering Air Force, not Army AMEDD. I know the Air Force generally has larger numbers for the medical field. Source? Really I would like your source. That is why OP needs to do research on his options. Agreed. I never said he shouldn't want to serve, however, there are some significant advantages to taking that route for his education. What advantages? Financial is not one of them. Serve because you want to serve not because you will be a physician serving. It's good that OP is thinking ahead, and so am I. Agreed. But don't believe everything the AMEDD recruiter or YouTube HPSP student present. These "what if" scenarios shouldn't make or break an individual from choosing the military path into medicine. It should if you are unable to practice medicine or your specialty of choice is not available the year you apply. Should bumps in his road of life occur, it'll be up to that individual to "adapt, improvise, and overcome" his situations. You are absolutely right. Thanks for reading and good luck OP!