2018 AFROTC HSSP Statistics

Discussion in 'ROTC' started by afrotc2022, Apr 30, 2018.

  1. afrotc2022

    afrotc2022 Member

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    Here are some stats that AFROTC HQ released for this year's HSSP results. I looked around to see if anyone else had posted and they hadn't, so I hope I'm not duplicating here...o_O

    High School Scholarship Program:
    - 5,581 submitted applications
    - 2,851 eligible applicants
    - 2,789 interviews received
    - 2,279 scholarships offered

    The FY18 averages were: 12% Type 1, 19% Type 2, and 69% Type 7. SAT is 1350, ACT is 30 and GPA is 3.71. STEM degrees are 73%.

    Hope this provides some more recent info for all of the class of 2023 people...
     
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  2. af99

    af99 Member

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    Wow! That’s more than 50% admission rate!
     
  3. unkown1961

    unkown1961 Member

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    Wonder what the rate was for Foreign Language scholarships?
     
  4. thibaud

    thibaud Member

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    These %s seem high. Recent years never exceeded ~5% for Type 1 applicants, for example.

    Are you sure the numbers are correct and final/complete?
     
  5. Pima

    Pima 10-Year Member

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    I agree that seems insanely high for Type 1. Not only does that number seem high for type 1, but overall offered seems high since typically it has always hovered around 1000 scholarships.

    It could be that HQ AF has decided that from an MPC aspect they expect to be waaaayyyyy short on ADAF O1s come 2022, but if you add USAFA and AFROTC entering for the 2022 class that means they could have up to 3500 cadets for the class of 2022.
    ~ USAFA typically offers 1350 +/- appointments, expecting 1100 on I Day. With attrition they typically commission @900.
    ~ AFROTC has a higher attrition rate overall, but about the same % for scholarship recipients. So for that class it would be around 1700 will commission, plus those that are walk ons, so so let's say another 800.
    ~~ Equaling 3500 for that FY.

    Now you also need to add in OCS. At that number there would probably be no OCS boards for FY2022.
    ~ This has occurred in the past, but the new SECAF has stated that they wanted to double from 125 to 250 OCS rated board. Thus, this means it will also impact the numbers.
    ~~ OCS has always been used as a means to control numbers, short on numbers open the spigot for OCS, high and close the spigot.

    If these stats are correct than there are other aspects to think about.
    1. AFROTC scholarship is not a true 4 yr scholarship. It is a 2 + 2 scholarship.
    ~ Cadet must be accepted for SFT as a soph. If not selected they will most likely be dis-enrolled from the program. Thus, the last 2 yrs on their own dime.
    ~~ Currently, SFT can only handle about 2100 cadets. It has been around 90% selection rate. The selection board is "blind" or aka "masked" regarding if the cadet is on scholarship.
    ~~~ If you do the math where in previous yrs they only have about 1000 on scholarships, and offer 2100 slots, than you will be able to see that when you add in the walk ons, that rate is going to have to drop big time to stay at the 2100 number. For example, it will probably be @60%, see above about it being a 2+2.
    2. If this is correct than chances are there will be no ICSP
    ~ HQ AFROTC has a limited pot of gold to offer for each FY group. If they exceed that number, than there will be no ICSP for the AS 200s.
    ~~ This has happened in the past.
    3. Rated slots.
    ~ Yes, there is a pilot shortage, but there is nothing in the news stating that the AF plans to open a new UPT, UNT or RPA training base. All of these options are running at 110%. They are backed up for start dates for at least 6-9 months, to get more in the pipeline they will need more of everything. More T1/T6/T38. More sims. More IPs. This is not only for UPT, UNT or RPA, but than later on at the airframe school houses (IE SJAFB for F15E, Little Rock for C130s, San Antonio for IPs, etc. etc. etc.) Currently, sims are running at school houses 6 days a week 24hrs. and on the 7th they run 12 hrs. That is how backed up they are currently. It was not uncommon for my DS to have a sim at 2:00 a.m. on a Sat. while he was at C130 schoolhouse.
    ~ IOWS in my personal opinion it will mean 1 of 2 things.
    ~~ 1 They will select less rated or 2 the wait time to start their UPT/UNT/RPA class to double which equates to a long wait time on casual status.
    4. ADAF has a formula when it comes to rank and grades. I do not know the exact break down, but typically it is 20% officer and 80% enlisted. From there they than break it down within the ranks. x% will be Flag compared to Field. X% Field compared to Company. It breaks down even more. X% of O1 compared to O2. X% of O2 compared to O3. So on and so forth.
    ~ What does that mean to you if these numbers are correct? It means that they can turn to you a few months prior to commissioning and say, Sorry, but there is no room for you do to your AFSC and we will not be commissioning you.
    ~~ This happened when my DS was a POC in AFROTC. A senior had their AFSC and EAD in hand, but 6 weeks prior they turned and released him.(non-rated)
    ~ It also means that they may do what I call a surgical RIF (reduction in forces) as an O1 or an O2. They can say to you take this severance package and walk or we will send you to a RIF board and may cut you.

    Sorry for the long novella, but I think that the more you understand about the long game regarding how numbers work, the better off you will be prepared for the WHAT IF situation. If these numbers are correct, than I truly believe there will be some major WHAT IFs. Remember the only thing HQ AFROTC has control over for 2022 is the amount of scholarships offered. They know the following, but can't predict the rest to an exact number, just can predict from historical data.
    ~ Many kids will apply ROTC as plan B (SA is plan A).
    ~ Many kids will apply multiple ROTC scholarships
    ~ Many kids will not get waivers for DoDMERB
    ~ Many kids that were not offered will walk on as an AS100
    ~ Many kids will walk on as AS250s (sophomores that did not walk on as freshmen)

    Great example. DS attended one of the largest AFROTC dets., and won the best biggest AFROTC unit in the nation 2x within 5 yrs. The yr he entered and all 4 there the incoming class was @120, with 20% on scholarship. The yr after he commissioned the AS100 class was close to 190. They still remained with only about 25 on scholarship, but the rest were all walk ons. HQ AFROTC could not expect the class size to increase by 60%, not including in that number the 250s.

    Just saying beware if this number is true because it could be a double edge sword.

    Thank you for wanting to serve this great nation. Sorry for being Debbie Downer.
     
  6. thibaud

    thibaud Member

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    To be clear, the difference, between these numbers and the historical pattern, is NOT huge in absolute numbers, only in percentage terms.

    It is very plausible that the total # of Type 1 winners went from ca. 60-90 per year to ca.270 last year. Certainly the organization can handle that magnitude of change.

    But it does seem a bit counterintuituve that the overall win rate went up to 82%. That indicates a change in either policy, or quality / awareness among high quality applicants.
     
  7. afrotc2022

    afrotc2022 Member

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    Yeah, the numbers seemed pretty high to me as well. The info is all from an official email that I got from AFROTC HQ. The completed application number is so close to the offered number that my guess is it only lists the people who pushed through and FULLY completed the app, as opposed to people who just submitted the initial questionnaire. Because only a few years ago I thought it was something like 10,000 applications submitted/begun (not necessarily completed).

    I guess we can hypothesize about it all day long...but it looks like USAF wants more people! Which is good news for a lot of people, come what may down the road.
     
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  8. MilitaryDad1968

    MilitaryDad1968 Member

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    My DS was one of the 18% that interviewed and wasn’t offered a scholarship. He was extremely disappointed but still plans to join the AFROTC program at Western Michigan University. He’s starting their aviation program early this summer and plans to graduate in 2022 with a BS in Flight Science and commission as 2nd Lt., hopefully with a pilot rating.

    I think not getting the scholarship was a wake up call for him. He seems much more determined not to let anything stop him from attaining his goals.
     
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