So he received official appointment first few days of November and reached out to his BGO to get some guidance about following through with upcoming MOC interviews. He was told emphatically to continue pursuing all noms.
With all due respect, your DS was given VERY bad advice. If you have an APPOINTMENT in hand, there is zero reason to waste your time and the MOC committees' time in pursuing any more noms. However, if you have an
LOA and a NOM in hand, you could stop at that point and just wait for your certificate to arrive. I personally would keep going until I saw the actual appointment as strange things can happen and there are no guarantees until you have that certificate. In most cases, the appointment certificate follows within a couple of weeks of being 3Q, LOA + nom of any kind, so it becomes rather a moot point from a practical matter.
LOAs depend on strength of packet, not time submitted. I had a candidate get an LOA in February pending redoing the CFA (in the days when the CFA could be repeated until March 1). It is true that LOAs are a bit less likely in January than earlier in the year, but I've seen nothing to suggest that submitting in August makes you more likely to get an LOA than submitting in October. You just could see it earlier.
Remember, there are thousands of well-qualified candidates. Very few who ultimately get appointments receive LOAs. And your BGO knows only SOME of the credentials of HIS/HER candidates. We don't see most of what our own candidates submit (see sticky above) and have no special insight into the rest of the district, state or country. Especially in the last few years, I've had quite a few very, very well qualified candidates (1560+ SATs, all AP math/science courses, sports, great ECAs with multiple noms) receive turndowns. And some who might be considered "less" qualified on paper receive appointments.
I long ago stopped "chancing" my candidates (i.e., telling them they had a good/not a good chance). When I did it in my head, 15 years ago, I was always right. 5-10 years ago, mostly right. Since then . . . I wouldn't take me with you to the casino. Just sayin'
The bottom line is keep pressing forward on all fronts, including Plan B and Plan C and then what's meant to be will happen.