Ya'll are "on target!"
Short background for the person that asked.
Mid-process last year the Chief of Staff of the Air Force directed the Superintendent of the USAFA to "reduce your numbers to the lawful level" by 2012. USAFA had been "over" their legal number of cadets (by a LOT) for quite a few years.
So...in mid-cycle last year, they stopped the entire process, reassessed their candidates, and dropped the number of folks they were going to admit from @ 1350 - 1420 (give or take, I can't remember the precise numbers we were briefed) to @ 1150. Due to the number of LOA's and other "promises" that were made, the final number if memory serves was 1173.
They then sat back, computed attrition, graduation of 2011 and 2012, and decided that they would admit a class in June 2012 of no more than 1050. They will then "reassess" again to see what the next class will be.
I'm trying to put out as much as I can; I've asked USAFA/RRS how much an ALO can post online and for some pretty clear/obvious reasons, we're restricted to VERY little. But with a little "clear thought" the level of competition for this class can be deduced.
535 MOC's (house and senate) Let's assume each has only 1 appt (may or may not be accurate)
100 Presidential
35-60 Falcon Foundation
@ 200 USAFA Prep School
5 VP
?? JrROTC/ROTC
Just those alone can fill the entire class without digging into the "qualified alternate" lists.
Someone else asked if we're seeing more MOC's using the "Principal/Alternate" method this year? From "chats" I've had with ALO's around the country I think (just my opinion) that the answer is no. I do know that here in AZ, there have been no changes.
I hope this helps...it doesn't give warm fuzzies, I realize, but it's about the most I can say.
Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83