I agree with Spud regarding flying but also disagree. Granted this is from an AF aviation perspective.
The big point I agree with him is in the whole picture aspect when it comes to switching how timing and age is going to be a factor. I know for our DS that just winged from AF UPT he had two or three that were second career assignments, and both were squeaking in at the age limit.
This was the same for the entire time Bullet was ADAF. I don't recall anyone getting it two years out from commissioning. Mainly because the base Wing King had to support them and this played a factor. They can't release every applicant that applies because that impacts their ability to do the mission they must fulfill. Thus, they start looking at them and age is an issue. If they were meeting the last board before the age clock matters they usually were given the you are my number 1 choice.
Between my two guys and twenty plus years difference it appears to me, at least anecdotally it hasn't change. OBTW, DSs college friend that went Maintenance (opted it in ROTC) and now she is trying for UPT, but basically she has been told don't expect to be picked up on the first board, you are only 24, there are guys that are 27 and their clock is ticking.
Here's where I part ways. The slim to none chances
I have a ton of retired AF pilot friends and if this was 2008/10/12 I would agree, BUT starting last year every Commercial airline company, be it SouthWest or FedEx has come out and stated in 5 years they will be hiring at an insane rate.
~ Remember after 9/11 they basically stopped hiring and did a lot of furloughing. The majority of pilots have military experience . Many of them will enter at 42 after 20 years of service, thus if you do the arithmetic they are @ 55 and this pace is going to go on for probably 10 years.
~~~ Our close friend is a SouthWest captain, when he saw our DS after he got the 130J the first words out of his mouth was, Welcome to SWA! We all laughed, but there was truth in the statement. DS could turn down the pilot bonus and bolt at 33.
When you as an outsider read about pilot shortage, the Navy and AF are well aware of how that will be very enticing and pilots will leave creating a vacuum. This occurred in the AF after the 93 RIF and they started throwing everything to get more in the pilot pipeline....age waivers, retention bonuses, speeding up promotion boards with higher % of rated being selected. The AF now offers a $225k bonus to fighter pilots if they stay until 19 years. 50% up front, remaining 112.5 split over 8 years or @14k every October and flight pay would be an additional 10k. Not too snappy.
~ AF has according to reports below 60% takers currently! That is an
for them.
Just saying I can see it change from slim to none to a good chance, but I don't see that getting a UPT slot in 2 years as a good chance because if you go back all the way in this long post you need Command support and if they are nonvoling into sub's, that means they need them to meet the mission. It comes down to which career field need them more. UPT is 2 plus years just to winging.